Tuesday, 4 September 2007

Is Myboycharlie a true Guineas prospect?

You couldn’t help but be impressed by Myboycharlie’s comfortable 2-length victory in the Darley Prix Morny. He settled the race in a matter of strides from what looks a very promising filly at middle distances, Natagora. But does this make him a viable 2000 Guineas 2nd favourite at 10/1?

Year

Colt

DI

2007

Cockney rebel

1.91

2006

George Washington

1.67

2005

Footstepsinthesand

1.08

2004

Haafhd

2.33

2003

Refuse to bend

1.05

2002

Rock of Gibraltar

2.16

2001

Golan

0.60

2000

Kings best

2.06

1999

Islands sands

1.57

1998

King of kings

1.78

1997

Entrepeneur

1.77


10 year average

1.62


Average

1.63

The answer lies in the above table. Now before someone tells me the limitations of Dosage theory, I am acutely aware of its pros and cons! The above table shows Guineas winners back to 1997 and each individual’s dosage index. Now take myboycharlie’s 2.56. No winner in the last 10 years has gone in above 2.33 and the vast majority have had figures considerably lower than 2.

If you are unaware of Dosage indexing, in short it is a standardised method of evaluating a horse’s family tree in order to categorise which trip the horse will be most effective at. (For further reading please visit http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage.htm)

So solely based on dosage figures, Myboycharlie should find the Guineas a furlong or 2 too far. What about those that believe dosage theory is futile? What do the statistics say about his chances? Myboycharlie’s sire, Danetime, has never had a black type winner over further than a sprint trip. His dam offers little encouragement. She has predominantly been bred to middle distance types bar 'Petong' in 1996, who has a stouter pedigree than Danetime, yet the offspring 'Niamh´s Pet' failed to stay the mile.

On paper its seems pretty conclusive that Myboycharlie is going to struggle to stay the straight mile at Newmarket, but that doesn’t mean he can’t cap a brilliant 2 year-old season with another group win in the Middle park or Mill reef stakes. Either way, an unbeaten 2 year-old season in the company he has held is sure to make him a highly sought after stallion.

N.B
For those interested in conformation and the fundamentals of why one horse stays 8 furlongs and another only 6, you may find the following article regarding paddock review interesting: http://www.b2yor.co.uk/by2or_prev_explain.htm

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice webby, Myboycharlie got the 6 furlongs in soft ground at 2... he must stand a good chance of getting the 8 furlongs at 3 despite his pedigree?

MW

A H said...

I can see where you are coming from, but he looks like a sprinter to me. It's worth noting Danetime had the 2nd in the Guineas this year in Vital Equine. It will be worth watching the QEII to see how he fares if he runs that is. He was up with the pace from a long way out so it must have been a true test.